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Farmer says ‘we’re in a very dire situation’ ahead of harvest—with zero soybean orders from China, historically the largest buyer

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  • Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association, is warning of an agricultural crisis as China has placed zero soybean orders for the upcoming harvest. It’s a departure from typical patterns, where 25% of the U.S. crop goes to China. With prices 40% below three-year highs and production costs rising, hundreds of thousands of farmers face losses unless there’s a trade resolution between the two countries.

American soybean farmers are heading into harvest season without a single order from China, historically their largest customer, raising alarm bells about the agricultural sector’s stability and broader implications for the U.S. economy.

Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association and a ninth-generation farmer from Kentucky, issued a stark warning about the crisis facing the nation’s 500,000 soybean growers. “Right now, we’re in a very dire situation,” Ragland said in a TikTok video that has drawn national attention to farmers’ plight.

In a separate CNN interview, Ragland emphasized the scale of China’s importance to American agriculture: “China takes more of our soybeans than all other foreign customers combined,” he said, noting that 50% of U.S. soybeans are exported and China represents a quarter of total demand.

The absence of Chinese orders represents a dramatic departure from normal trading patterns. China typically accounted for over 25% of total U.S. soybean purchases, with roughly one-third of annual sales to the country normally booked by this point in the season. This translates to approximately 8%-9% of the entire U.S. crop that would typically be sold to China by now currently sitting at zero.

The trade dispute has pushed already-struggling farmers to the brink. Ragland told CNN that soybean prices have fallen 40% from their levels three years ago, while production costs and interest rates have risen. “We’re looking at basically losses for the upcoming year if commodity prices don’t improve,” he said.

Current soybean futures prices reflect the uncertainty, trading around $10.10 per bushel for September contracts—well below estimated production costs of approximately $11.03 per bushel. Ragland’s own farm is currently generating $750,000 in losses, forcing him to rely on loans to bridge the financial gap.

“Right now we’re planting a crop that looks like it will be produced at a loss,” he told CNN. “By fall, when the soybeans are harvested and ready to sell, we’re gonna need a drastic improvement in our markets or it’s gonna get even tougher for farm families all across this country.”

The financial pressure extends beyond individual operations. “There’s not much room for error right now in the budgets,” Ragland said, emphasizing that all 500,000 soybean farmers nationwide face similar challenges.

The implications extend far beyond individual farms. Agriculture contributes $9.5 trillion to the U.S. economy annually, representing 18.7% of total national economic output. The agricultural sector directly and indirectly supports over a million American jobs, with soybean exports alone generating more than 231,000 jobs across farming, manufacturing, transportation, and related industries.

Ragland highlighted these broader economic connections in his CNN interview: “That trickles down to our rural communities. Our rural communities are a lot of folks across this country. And that impacts small business. That impacts just the whole infrastructure within our communities.”

In 2023, every $1 billion in U.S. agricultural exports supported approximately 5,997 jobs. Soybeans and corn bulk exports alone supported over 212,520 jobs. The economic multiplier effect means disruptions to soybean trade ripple through manufacturing, logistics, and rural communities nationwide.

The standoff stems from ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which have fundamentally altered global soybean trade patterns. U.S. soybeans currently face a 20% retaliatory tariff disadvantage compared to South American competitors, pushing the total duty rate on American soybeans to 34% when combined with other taxes.

China has responded by dramatically increasing purchases from Brazil. Chinese soybean imports hit record highs in July, driven largely by Brazilian exports. Brazil exported approximately 15.7 million tons of soybeans in March 2025, with three-quarters destined for China—the highest monthly volume ever exported to China. In 2024, China sourced 71% of its total soybean imports from Brazil, up from previous years.

The American Soybean Association warned in an August 19 letter to President Trump that “China has contracted with Brazil to meet future months’ needs to avoid purchasing any soybeans from the United States.”

Despite his support for Trump, Ragland has become increasingly vocal about the need for immediate trade resolution. “We desperately need to get something rectified quickly with China, our biggest export customer,” he told CNN. “We wanna encourage the administration to get a proactive trade deal done.”

When asked about the administration’s calls for patience, Ragland emphasized the time-sensitive nature of the crisis. Farmers are “planning a crop that looks like it will be produced at a loss,” and without market improvements before harvest, the situation will deteriorate further.

The broader agricultural sector is experiencing what industry groups describe as an economic crisis. The National Corn Growers Association reports corn prices have fallen more than 50% from their 2022 highs, with production costs declining only 3% over the same period. This agricultural downturn comes as the 2025 U.S. soybean crop is forecast at nearly 4.3 billion bushels, the country’s sixth-largest harvest in history. However, without Chinese demand, this abundant supply threatens to further depress prices and worsen farmers’ financial distress.

The situation echoes the 2018-2020 trade war, during which U.S. agriculture lost $26 billion, with nearly $20 billion in soybean losses alone. Soybeans accounted for 71% of agricultural losses experienced by American farmers during that earlier conflict.

The urgency reflects the seasonal nature of agricultural markets. As harvest approaches and storage facilities fill with unsold grain, prices typically face additional downward pressure. Without resolution soon, farmers may be forced to sell their crops at deeply discounted prices or face expensive storage costs through the winter months.

Current trade dynamics show limited progress toward resolution. While President Trump signed an executive order in August extending the current tariff truce with China by 90 days through November 10, the extension primarily addresses broader trade issues rather than agricultural-specific concerns.

Ragland framed the crisis in terms of national strength: “We want to keep this nation strong. We’re the backbone of America,” he said.

Despite acknowledging that he believes Trump “loves farmers” and is “trying to do what’s right for this country,” he emphasized the need for immediate action: “We gotta make sure that we survive through these tough times.”

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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HarlandCorbin
2 hours ago
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I wonder how many farmers voted for mango mussolini... FAFO and this is the find out stage. And wait, the article said something about the 2018-2020 trade war causing farmers distress too, I'm thinking they didn't learn anything that time around.
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‘I have never been as worried as I am now’: Arkansas farmers gather to share concerns

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BROOKLAND, Ark. (KAIT) - Farmers from across the state are asking for help before it’s too late.

Hundreds of farmers gathered in Brookland to speak with representatives of Arkansas leaders to share with them their urgent plight: the difficulties they face in farming today.

Many farmers spoke out at the meeting.

Their message was straightforward: We need help, and we need it now.

“Mr. Trump, you looked at me and said, ‘I love you,’” Woodruff County farmer Chris King said. “Mr. Trump, I need to see the fruit of your love.”

“You are going to lose 25 to 30% of the farmers in this country if they don’t do something,” said Scott Brown, a farmer from Biggers, Arkansas. “It has to be done, and it’s not just here; it’s everywhere.”

Hundreds of farmers gather to share their concerns

The line to get into the meeting place, the Woods Chapel Baptist Church, went out the door. Countless farmers from across the state came to voice their concerns about the current state of farming.

Representatives from U.S. Congressman Rick Crawford, Sen. Tom Cotton, and Sen. John Boozman’s offices attended the gathering to hear concerns.

One of the farmers in attendance, Chris King, spoke about his harvest difficulties.

He told us this was his 39th harvest, and he has never seen it this bad before.

“I have never been as worried as I am now about whether or not my kids and grandkids will be able to carry on,” said Chris King.

Lack of profit, export difficulties, and high costs

Chris King said the main problem is that they can’t sell for profit.

“I just would like to see somebody help us get our markets back,” said Chris King. “We need our exports, and we just need to be paid for what we do, and that’s not happening, and we’re in real trouble.”

But this is not the only issue.

Chris King’s wife, Melissa King, and farmer Scott Brown said they are struggling to afford the bare minimum cost to maintain their farms.

“Prices that we are getting now are prices like they were when we were children, and what it costs for us to farm is astronomical now. The price of a combine when we were kids was in the 20,000s, and now it’s 100,000,” said Melissa King.

“I farm 800 acres by myself, I can’t afford any help, I farm with paid-for equipment, all my tractors are 50 years old, and I can’t hardly make this deal work,” said Brown. “How are the guys farming 5 and 10 thousand with 20 hands and million-dollar combines and million-dollar drills going to make it work?”

Tariffs are hurting farmers

Brown said one issue that rounds out all the problems farmers are facing: tariffs.

“I think the tariffs are the ice cream on the cake of a perfect storm,” said Brown. “When you try and sell a product, okay, U.S. soybeans leaving New Orleans without the tariff to China are cheaper than Brazilian soybeans, at the current market. But when you put the tariff on top of them, Brazilian beans are cheaper.”

What can be done to help farmers?

“In the short term, they have no choice but to mail us a check,” said Brown. “I don’t know a farmer that likes the check program. Nobody wants to take the taxpayer dollars, but nobody wants to go broke, nobody wants to lose everything. Long term, we have to have options, markets, and places to sell our product.”

The political representatives who attended said they will take these concerns to Washington to share with government leaders and find a way to solve this problem before it’s too late.

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HarlandCorbin
4 days ago
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Let's see... Who did Arkansas vote for president again? Methinks that farmers above all others should understand the phrase "You reap what you sow". FAFO, and you're in the find out stage.
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1 public comment
LeMadChef
4 days ago
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GFY farmers!
Denver, CO

A Reminder

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When Donald Trump came into office in 2017, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was in force, and working as expected/ hoped. It was a far better agreement than most of us wonks had expected or wished for. When its draft came out earlier, we were dancing in the streets. It was carefully done and extremely specific about limitations on Iran’s nuclear program.

And Iran was working to the plan. IAEA inspectors installed sensors that sent information on how enrichment was working to their computers. Numbers were being hit. Iran was working toward what the IAEA calls a “broader conclusion,” a certification that its nuclear program is peaceful. Collaborations were being forged between Iran and the nations that were involved in the negotiations. IIRC, China was working with Iran on reactor design to minimize plutonium production, for one example. There were other provisions to move toward more extensive agreements; the expectation was that interactions would continue.

But the JCPOA required regular certifications from the US president. And those regular signatures reminded Trump that it was Barack Obama who had negotiated this wildly successful agreement. That could not stand, and it didn’t. Trump withdrew. He had great faith in his negotiation skills combined with coercive measures that he loves.

The Biden administration tried to put things back together, but the loss of trust that Trump’s withdrawal produced was too much. And situations had changed, both in the US and in Iran.

Trump ordered his golfing buddy, Steve Witkoff, another great negotiator in his eyes, to put something like the JCPOA back in place. He didn’t use those words, of course, but that was what it amounted to. Reports from Witkoff’s negotiations seem to indicate they might have been converging on something a little less than the JCPOA.

The US JCPOA negotiating team consisted of something like 150 people, most of whom were experts in nuclear issues and sanctions. The national labs supplied experts. Witkoff showed up to meetings without even an interpreter, much less national lab experts.

This time around, Iran was more pressed to get an agreement, but even with that, the Great Negotiators failed. Throughout, Trump occasionally tweeted threats at Iran to encourage them to agree.

Bibi Netanyahu had other ideas, as we see. Like Putin, he sees Trump as a sucker. Like Putin, he has no interest in peace. As Trump sees his great triumph (and Nobel Prize) slipping away, he is panicking, as we see from his frequent postings over the last 24 hours. His earlier threats, along with his poor understanding of the situation and inability to think about anything but win-lose outcomes, put him in a bind Now he’s meeting with his crack foreign policy team.

The post A Reminder appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

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HarlandCorbin
85 days ago
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I think there's a typo.

Now he’s meeting with his crack foreign policy team.

Should be:
Now he’s meeting with his on crack foreign policy team.
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The Disability Follies, Part the Thousandth

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In one of those brave acts of revelation long after the fact to sell books, Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson tell us that President Joe Biden’s aides were told by his doctor that Biden might need a wheelchair if he tood a bad fall.

Biden has spinal arthritis and neuralgia in his feet. That makes his gait uncertain. It’s not uncommon in people his age. A friend of mine has the same sort of neuralgia in her feet. I have to let her hold onto my arm at times, but she continues to compose operas and just had one performed in Santa Fe.

Physical disabilities do not imply mental disabilities.

Let me repeat that.

PHYSICAL DISABILITIES DO NOT IMPLY MENTAL DISABILITIES.

Nonetheless, CNN includes a sentence in the article to imply exactly that.

I remind you that one of our most influential presidents used a wheelchair.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, has been ignorant and bigoted and has abused his body for most of his life. It’s not just a feature of his old age, so I guess that’s okay.

Could we concentrate on that clear and present danger?

The post The Disability Follies, Part the Thousandth appeared first on Lawyers, Guns & Money.

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HarlandCorbin
120 days ago
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If the cheeto traitor took a bad fall, he'd likely need a hearse.
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Punched Out

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Everybody to the limit

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HarlandCorbin
132 days ago
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Bowling ball? Or Pintsize's old head?
JavaJim
132 days ago
that's got to be a head
gordol
132 days ago
My question too!
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US citizen detained by ICE questions his vote for Trump – NBC4 Washington

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A naturalized Hispanic man says he was detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents who were looking for another person on a deportation order, and now the man is questioning his vote for President Donald Trump.

Jensy Machado said he is a U.S. citizen and provided News4 documentation of his legal status.

Machado said he was driving to work Wednesday with two other men when he was stopped by ICE agents on Lomond Drive in Manassas, a short distance from his home. He said he was confused by what was happening, why agents surrounded the pickup truck. 

“And they just got out of the car with the guns in their hands and say, turn off the car, give me the keys, open the window, you know,” Machado told Telemundo 44’s Rosbelis Quinoñez, who first reported his story. “Everything was really fast.”

He said the agents said the name of a man they were seeking for a deportation order, someone who had given Machado’s home address. Machado told them that wasn’t his name — he didn’t know anyone by that name — and offered to show them his real ID compliant Virginia driver’s license.

“They didn’t ask me for any ID,” Machado said. “I was telling the officer, if I can give him ID, but he said just keep my hands up, not moving. After that, he told me to get out of the car and put the handcuffs on me. And then he went to me and said how did I get into this country and if I was waiting for a court date or if I have any case. And I told him I was an American citizen, and he looked at his other partner like, you know, smiling, like saying, can you believe this guy? Because he asked the other guy, ‘Do you believe him?’”

Machado said he was uncuffed and immediately released after showing his driver’s license.

The two men with him were taken into custody. He does not know why.

Machado said the experience shook his faith in the immigration enforcement efforts of Trump, for whom he voted.

“Because, like I said, I was a Trump supporter,” he said. “I voted for Trump last election, but, because I thought it was going to be the things, you know, like, … just go against criminals, not every Hispanic looking, like, that they will assume that we are all illegals.”

“That’s what they’re doing, now,” Machado said. “They’re just following Hispanic people.”

Immigration lawyers advise residents and citizens to always keep ID with them.

News4 and Telemundo 44 have both contacted ICE for comment and are awaiting a response.

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HarlandCorbin
186 days ago
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"I can't believe they would eat my face" says man who voted for the leopards eating faces party.
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